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Monday, June 26, 2017

Brandon Kintzler Climbing Twins Single Season Saves Chart



Interesting remarks about developing his slider, and having another weapon.
Glad to know he's in attack mode on the mound, as opposed to Ron Davis's attack
mode on the post-game food spreads. I know, I know...cheap shots on easy targets.

As the Twins roared back this weekend to retake the Central Division lead with a three game sweep of division rival Cleveland, it seemed an appropriate time to examine one of the players responsible for their success in 2017. Brandon Kintzler is one of the more unlikely heroes to emerge, especially among all-time Twins relievers, but is nonetheless a very compelling, feel good story. I keep waiting for him to blow up, fall back to earth, have his coach turn back into a pumpkin (all the usual cliches, dig?). Not yet, anyway!

The Twins all-time, single-season saves leaders are represented in the below chart. Kintzler is stacked up against the best the Twins have had to offer, and it's an interesting look! His percentage of saves per appearances / innings pitched is looking impressive at this point, though with some caveats. I completely expect a drop off as the schedule progresses, with more innings pitched, wear on his arm, a go-against-the-grain reliance on grounders as opposed to strikeouts, and the level of opponents and tough innings pile up. 

But who knows? I wouldn't bet on him sustaining this percentage of save conversions, but he's already surprised me about his apptitude for finishing games and ability to put away tough hitters in high leverage situations. He's doing this by relying on a sinker to generate groundballs, a 5.94 K/9 innings pitched rate, while his flyball rate has increased to 28.3% (up from 19.9), and his vaunted 61+% 2016 groundball rate is down to 47% this year. That notwithstanding, his opportunity to turn in a 30-40 plus save season is within reach, even though his past performances wouldn't seem to have provided that possibility.

The slider "thing" should be interesting to watch, to see if it becomes more of a "go-to" pitch in critical situations.

- Chart: 20 or More Saves In Team History, Kintzler at Top For comparison -

Rk Player SV G IP Year Age SO ERA FIP K% BAbip
1Brandon Kintzler213333.1201732222.703.7116.9%.268
2Bill Campbell2078167.21976271153.013.1616.4%.270
3Jon Rauch215957.2201031463.122.9418.8%.322
4Mike Marshall215499.0197835562.453.0013.9%.259
5Al Worthington216280.1196536592.133.3417.7%.244
6Bill Dailey2166108.2196328721.992.7617.4%.231
7Ron Davis2263106.0198226894.424.3619.4%.297
8Rick Aguilera234444.2199432463.633.7822.9%.373
9Doug Corbett2373136.1198027891.983.0616.8%.247
10Mike Trombley247587.1199932824.334.5221.8%.315
11Ron Davis255764.2198529723.483.6725.3%.293
12Rick Aguilera266168.1199735683.823.8823.9%.313
13LaTroy Hawkins286251.1200128365.964.7414.5%.333
14Ron Davis296483.0198428744.554.2620.3%.292
15Ron Davis306689.0198327843.342.9622.0%.332
16Jeff Reardon316573.0198933464.073.5415.5%.264
17Jeff Reardon316380.1198731834.484.2324.6%.269
18Ron Perranoski3175119.2196933622.113.2412.8%.229
19Glen Perkins326057.0201532543.323.8222.7%.299
20Rick Aguilera325665.1199028612.762.9922.8%.279
21Mike Marshall3290142.2197936812.653.4213.8%.285
22Glen Perkins346361.2201431663.653.1025.4%.320
23Rick Aguilera346572.1199331593.113.6020.6%.252
24Ron Perranoski3467111.0197034552.433.6311.7%.281
25Glen Perkins366162.2201330772.302.4932.1%.275
Rk Player SV G IP Year Age SO ERA FIP K% BAbip
26Joe Nathan366468.1200631951.581.6836.3%.243
27Joe Nathan376871.2200732771.882.6527.3%.279
28Rick Aguilera386874.1199836574.243.6518.6%.300
29Joe Nathan396867.2200833741.332.7928.4%.236
30Eddie Guardado416665.1200332602.893.2323.1%.244
31Rick Aguilera416466.2199230522.833.4019.1%.272
32Rick Aguilera426369.0199129612.353.0022.2%.229
33Jeff Reardon426373.0198832562.473.0018.7%.287
34Joe Nathan436970.0200530942.702.2134.1%.266
35Joe Nathan447372.1200429891.622.1631.3%.273
36Eddie Guardado456867.2200231702.933.4625.9%.259
37Joe Nathan477068.2200934892.102.8832.8%.233
.
Generated 6/26/2017.

Kintzler also has three blown saves to this point in the season. That's as many as he had last year, in 2016. It is conceivable he could be in the running for the most blown saves in team history, but he'll have to go hard, regress to the mean, to catch up with the worst in team history.

- 10 or More Blown Saves -
Rk Player BSv
SV G IP Year Age
1Ron Davis14296483.0198428
2Rick Aguilera11386874.1199836
3Jeff Reardon11316573.0198933
4Ron Perranoski113467111.0197034
5Ron Perranoski113175119.2196933
6Jeff Reardon10316380.1198731
7Mike Marshall103290142.2197936
8Bill Campbell102078167.2197627

NOTE: For all the criticism Matt Capps received in 2011, 9 BSs (pardon the phrase!) was the most he ever had in any season as a Twins reliever.
Generated 6/26/2017.

"So long, everybody!" - Herb Carneal

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